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| Weather Products for Decision Support Tools |
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National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF)
- Computer generated graphical forecast extending 0-1 hours, updated
every 5 minutes
- Conservative forecast useful for rerouting (bias of ~1)
- Deterministic forecast (doesn't use probabilities)
- Better at forecasting lines than air mass storms
- Traffic flow management (TFM) decision support more interested
in lines
- Current operational forecast is an extrapolation only
- Lacks initiation, growth and decay algorithms
- Ongoing research and development will lead to better/longer forecasts
(2-3 hours)
- Limited vertical storm definition
- Better vertical definition may increase available capacity
2000Z Storm in Steady State Forecast Accuracy Acceptable
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)
- Human generated, collaborative, graphical forecast extending 0-6 hours,
updated several times a day
- Non-conservative forecast less useful for rerouting (bias >1
- Over forecasts, reducing capacity more than necessary
- Probabilistic forecast (e.g., 40% chance of 60% coverage)
- May be better at forecasting air mass storms
- Helped by over forecasting and human generation
- TFM decision support more interested in lines
- Limited vertical storm definition
- Better vertical definition may increase capacity
Convective Weather Research and Development
- Federal Aviation Administration
- Aviation Research Weather Program funding NCWF, CCFP, Terminal
Convective Weather Forecast (TCWF)
- National Weather Service
- Funding Thunderstorm Operational Research (THOR)
- Center weather service unit meteorologists supporting CCFP
- Aviation Weather Center
- Distributing NCWF and supporting CCFP
- Airlines
- Meteorologists supporting CCFP
- Forecast Systems Laboratory
- Inter-comparison exercise project is evaluating forecasts
- National Center for Atmospheric Research
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory
National Center for Atmospheric Research's Auto-Nowcaster
- Augments extrapolation forecast with initiation, growth and decay
- Based on storm, boundary-layer and cloud characteristics
- Derives thunderstorm likelihood fields (polygons) that are weighted,
combined and compared to thresholds
- Linked to individual next generation weather radars and requires
mosaic for a national product
- Improves accuracy over extrapolation alone
- Needs improved growth and decay algorithms, greater spatial coverage,
longer time periods (0-3 hrs)
- Needs vertical storm definition
Other Research
- THOR project
- Focussing on 0-2 hour convective weather forecast
- Plans to establish two regional test and evaluation sites
- Goal is to develop a seamless national product
- Working closely with weather research and aviation communities
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory is developing
a regional convective weather forecast by leveraging their terminal
area work
CAASD's NCWF Weather Assessment
- Convective weather research is proceeding in a positive direction
- Accurate 2-hour forecasts of convective lines are anticipated in the
near term (accurate 3-hour forecast may be possible)
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Workshop Brochure [161k]
